Thursday, December 18, 2008

Final Official Fullerton Election Results

Back in November when I published the initial election results for races at issue in Fullerton, California, I promised to post an update with the official certified election results. I keep my campaign promises.
As before Warning: Orange County is notoriously conservative, so before you proceed to the results, do not have a kitten when you see President and Vice President: John McCain/Sarah Palin. I compare the numbers in Orange County to the numbers in neighboring L.A. County and California as a whole, so we can all marvel at how Orange County differs from its neighbor and the rest of the state.

First off, back in November I noted the big news about record turnout in Los Angeles County and compared it with the rather lackluster turnout in Orange County. The Secretary of State's Voter Participation Statistics by County helps to further illustrate that point. 78.36% of registered voters in Los Angeles County cast a ballot this past November, compared to 72.62% in Orange County and 79.42% statewide. That works out to be 58.32% of eligible voters in L.A. County cast a ballot, compared to 62.75% in Orange County and 59.22% statewide.

Sounds like L.A. County needs an increased voter registration drive next time around. Somebody call A.C.O.R.N.

According to the Secretary of State's Historical Voter Registration and Voter Participation in Statewide General Elections 1910 - 2008, in terms of statewide voter participation, you have to go back to the presidential election in 1972 to find a higher level of participation, 64.52% of eligible California voters cast a ballot, than this November's 59.22%. In terms of registered voters casting ballots you have to go back to the presidential election of 1976 to find a higher level of participation, 81.53% of registered California voters cast a ballot, than this November's 79.42%.

Orange County election results for races at issue in Fullerton, California:
President and Vice President: John McCain/Sarah Palin
579,064 Orange County voters (50.20%) cast ballots for John McCain & Sarah Palin, compared to 956,425 (28.90%) in L.A. County and 5,011,781 (37.00%) statewide.
549,558 Orange County voters (47.70%) cast ballots for Barack Obama & Joe Biden, compared to 2,295,853 (69.20%) in L.A. County and 8,274,473 (61.10%) statewide.
7867 Orange County voters (0.70%) cast ballots for Libertarian Bob Barr, compared to 16,967 (0.50%) in L.A. County and 67,582 (0.50%) statewide.
7689 Orange County voters (0.70%) cast ballots for Ralph Nader, compared to 26,946 (0.90%) in L.A. County and 108,381 (0.80%) statewide.
3562 Orange County voters (0.30%) cast ballots for Alan Keyes, compared to 9,201 (0.20%) in L.A. County and 40,673 (0.30%) statewide.
3118 Orange County voters (0.20%) cast ballots for Ron Paul, compared to 1,290 (0.00%) in L.A. County and 17,006 (0.10%) statewide.
2454 Orange County voters (0.20%) cast ballots for my former representative, Cynthia McKinney, compared to 11,238 (0.30%) in L.A. County and 38,774 (0.20%) statewide.
373 Orange County voters (0.00%) cast ballots for Chuck Baldwin, compared to 308 (0.00%) in L.A. County and 3,145 (0.00%) statewide.
1 Orange County voter (0.00%) cast his or her ballot for Frank Moore, compared to 3 (0.00%) in L.A. County and 36 (0.00%) statewide.
1 Orange County voter (0.00%) cast his or her ballot for James Harris, compared to 17 (0.00%) in L.A. County and 49 (0.00%) statewide.

A total of 25,065 votes in Orange County went to "third party" candidates, 2.17%, which was not quite enough to change the outcome in the county. 65,970 votes in L.A. County went to "third party" candidates (1.99%). 275,646 votes statewide went to "third party" candidates (2.03%).

United States Representative, 40th District: Ed Royce (Republican)
Democrat Christina Avalos earned 86,772 votes (37.4%) compared to incumbent Republican Ed Royce's 144,923 votes (62.6%).

State Senator, 33rd District: Mimi Walters (Republican)
Democrat Gary Pritchard earned 157,945 votes (41.8%) compared to Republican Mimi Walters' 219,068 votes (58.2%).

Member of the State Assembly, 72nd District: Michael D. "Mike" Duvall (Republican)
Democrat John MacMurray earned 65,216 votes (45.2%) compared to incumbent Republican Michael D. (Mike) Duvall's 79,066 vote (54.8%).

On to the statewide propositions!

Prop. 1A - Safe, Reliable High-Speed Train Bond Act: YES . . . yay!
Shortly after Election Day this race was deemed too close to call by the L.A. Times due to the fact that those in favor were only up by 423,424 votes. By the Secretary of State's final tally, 6,680,485 voters (52.70%) favored Prop. 1A while 6,015,944 (47.30%) opposed it. So it ended up winning by 664,541 votes. This is one of the three ballot measures where the outcome in Orange County differed from the outcome statewide. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 470,846 voters (43.6%) favored Prop. 1A while 608,271 voters (56.4%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 1A would have lost by 137,425 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,694,649 voters (55.6%) favored Prop. 1A while 1,354,093 voters (44.4%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 1A would have passed by 340,556 votes.

Prop. 2 - Standards for Confining Farm Animals: YES . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 8,203,769 voters (63.50%) favored Prop. 2 while 4,731,738 (36.50%) opposed it. So it won by 3,472,031 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 660,741 voters (60.0%) favored Prop. 2 while 441,070 voters (40.0%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 2 would have passed by 219,671 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 2,090,665 voters (67.1%) favored Prop. 2 while 1,026,497 voters (32.9%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 2 would have passed by 1,064,168 votes.

Prop. 3 - Children's Hospital Bond Act. Grant Program: YES . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 6,984,319 voters (55.30%) favored Prop. 3 while 5,654,586 (44.70%) opposed it. So it won by 1,329,733 votes. This is one of the three ballot measures where the outcome in Orange County differed from the outcome statewide. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 528,320 voters (49.1%) favored Prop. 3 while 547,061 voters (50.9%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 3 would have lost by 18,741 votes. This was the closest proposition contest in Orange County. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,882,951 voters (61.9%) favored Prop. 3 while 1,160,833 voters (38.1%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 3 would have passed by 722,118 votes.

Prop. 4 - Parent Notif. Before Terminating Minor's Pregnancy: NO . . . yay!
Shortly after Election Day this race was deemed too close to call by the L.A. Times due to the fact that those opposed were only up by 447,561 votes. In the end, according to the Secretary of State's final tally, 6,220,473 voters (48.00%) favored Prop. 4 while 6,728,478 (52.00%) opposed it. So it was defeated by 508,005 votes. This is one of the three ballot measures where the outcome in Orange County differed from the outcome statewide. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 600,830 voters (54.4%) favored Prop. 4 while 504,707 voters (45.6%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 4 would have passed by 96,123 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,437,830 voters (46.2%) favored Prop. 4 while 1,673,251 voters (53.8%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 4 would have failed by 235,421 votes.

Prop. 5 - Nonviolent Drug Offense. Sentencing, Parole, Rehab: NO
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 5,155,206 voters (40.50%) favored Prop. 5 while 7,566,783 (59.50%) opposed it. So it was defeated by 2,411,577 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 380,102 voters (35.1%) favored Prop. 5 while 701,377 voters (64.9%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 5 would have failed by 321,275 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,312,378 voters (42.8%) favored Prop. 5 while 1,751,858 voters (57.2%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 5 would have failed by 439,480 votes.

Prop. 6 - Police, Law Enforcement Funding. Criminal Laws: NO . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 3,824,372 voters (30.80%) favored Prop. 6 while 8,559,647 (69.20%) opposed it. So it was defeated by 4,735,275 votes, the largest margin of any of the propositions. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 321,170 voters (30.4%) favored Prop. 6 while 732,879 voters (69.6%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 6 would have failed by 411,709 votes. Of the proposition contests, this was the widest margin in Orange County. Compare that to L.A. County where 907,732 voters (30.6%) favored Prop. 6 while 2,052,672 voters (69.4%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 6 would have failed by 1,144,940 votes. Of the proposition contests, this was the widest margin in L.A. County.

Prop. 7 - Renewable Energy Generation: NO . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 4,502,235 voters (35.50%) favored Prop. 6 while 8,155,181 (64.50%) opposed it. So it was defeated by 3,652,946 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 373,504 voters (34.6%) favored Prop. 7 while 705,463 voters (65.4%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 7 would have failed by 331,959 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,127,468 voters (37.3%) favored Prop. 7 while 1,893,487 voters (62.7%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 7 would have failed by 766,019 votes.

Prop. 8 - Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry: YES
Shortly after Election Day this race was deemed too close to call by the L.A. Times due to the fact that those in favor were only up by 415,839 votes. In the end, per the Secretary of State's final tally, 7,001,084 voters (52.30%) favored Prop. 1A while 6,401,482 (47.70%) opposed it. So it ended up winning by 599,602 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 659,037 voters (57.7%) favored Prop. 8 while 484,015 voters (42.3%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 8 would have passed by 175,022 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,624,672 voters (50.1%) favored Prop. 8 while 1,622,287 voters (49.9%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 8 would have passed by 2,385 votes. Of the proposition contests this was the closest margin in L.A. County.

Prop. 9 - Criminal Justice System. Victims' Rights. Parole: YES
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 6,682,465 voters (53.90%) favored Prop. 9 while 5,728,968 (46.10%) opposed it. So it won by 953,497 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 612,578 voters (57.9%) favored Prop. 9 while 446,576 voters (42.1%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 9 would have passed by 166,002 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,537,289 voters (51.9%) favored Prop. 9 while 1,428,673 voters (48.1%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 9 would have passed by 108,616 votes.

Prop. 10 - Altern. Fuel Vehicles and Renewable Energy Bonds: NO . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 5,098,666 voters (40.50%) favored Prop. 10 while 7,464,154 (59.50%) opposed it. So it was defeated by 2,365,488 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 418,350 voters (38.8%) favored Prop. 10 while 657,191 voters (61.2%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 10 would have failed by 238,841 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,368,119 voters (45.2%) favored Prop. 10 while 1,657,227 voters (54.8%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 10 would have failed by 289,108 votes.

Prop. 11 - Redistricting: YES . . . yay!
Shortly after Election Day this race was deemed too close to call by the L.A. Times due to the fact that those in favor were only up by 90,878 votes. In the end this was the closest race of all the propositions. In the Secretary of State's final tally, 6,095,033 voters (50.90%) favored Prop. 11 while 5,897,655 (49.10%) opposed it. So it ended up winning by 197,378 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 559,971 voters (55.0%) favored Prop. 11 while 458,329 voters (45.0%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 11 would have passed by 101,642 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,378,561 voters (47.6%) favored Prop. 11 while 1,513,159 voters (52.4%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 11 would have failed by 134,598 votes. This was the proposition contest where the outcome in L.A. County differed from the outcome statewide.

Prop. 12 - Veterans' Bond: YES . . . yay!
According to the Secretary of State's final tally, 7,807,630 voters (63.60%) favored Prop. 12 while 4,481,196 (36.40%) opposed it. So it won by 3,326,464 votes. Based on the Secretary of States data on Ballot Measures by County, in Orange County 603,006 voters (57.6%) favored Prop. 12 while 445,357 voters (42.4%) opposed it. So if Orange County was the sole decider, Prop. 12 would have passed by 157,649 votes. Compare that to L.A. County where 1,955,109 voters (66.4%) favored Prop. 12 while 990,171 voters (33.6%) opposed it. If L.A. County was the sole decider, Prop. 12 would have passed by 964,938 votes.

Now we get into elections reported only in the Orange County Registrar of Voters Statement of Votes - a 2,037 page document. Just giving y'all with slow connections a heads up that you might just want to trust me on these numbers.

Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 12: Debra Carrillo . . . Yay!
1,607,989 registered voters could vote in this contest. 1,167,657 registered voters cast ballots (72.62%). Debra Carrillo earned 581,954 votes compared to Kermit Marsh's 327,065. You can find these numbers on page 412 of the Orange County Registrar of Voters Statement of Votes. So does that mean of the 1,167,657 voters who cast ballots only 909,019 (77.8%) bothered to vote in this contest? So out of all registered voters in Orange County only 56.5% actually voted in this contest? That's still better than the statewide turnout in most midterm elections, so I guess that's not so bad.

North Orange County Community College District, Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 4: Molly McClanahan . . . Yay!
433,011 registered voters could vote in this contest. 304,581 registered voters cast ballots (70.34%). Danarose Crystal earned 43,288 votes (18.6%), Molly McClanahan earned 162,776 (70.0%), and Ross P. Romero earned 26,365 (11.3%). That's 232,429 votes all tolled, or 76.3% of the voters who cast ballots bothered to vote in this contest, or 53.7% of registered voters actually voted in this contest.
You can find these numbers on page 430 of the Orange County Registrar of Voters Statement of Votes.

City of Fullerton, Member, City Council: Sharon Quirk . . . Yay!, Shawn Nelson, and F. Richard "Dick" Jones. I believe the top three vote-getters make the cut. I am particularly disappointed that F. Richard "Dick" Jones made the cut given his use of misleading direct mail.
70,242 registered voters could vote in this contest. 50,181 registered voters cast ballots (71.44%). Incumbent Sharon Quirk earned 25,450 votes (24.1%), incumbent Shawn Nelson earned 21,285 (20.2%), incumbent F. Richard "Dick" Jones earned 19,592 (18.6%), Karen Haluza earned 16,788 (15.9%), Virginia Han earned 9,137 (8.7%), Scott Carroll earned 8,419 (8.0%), and Richard "Dick" Little earned 4,865 (4.6%). You can find these numbers on page 818 of the Orange County Registrar of Voters Statement of Votes. That's a total of 105,536 votes, which seems odd until you realize voters could vote for 3 candidates. So that means 35,178 2/3 voters voted. Just kidding. I only voted for two candidates myself.

Orange County Measure J: YES
1,607,989 registered voters could vote in this contest. 1,167,657 registered voters cast ballots (72.62%). 253,331 voters (24.8%) opposed Measure J. 768,374 voters (75.2%) favored Measure J. 1,021,705 total votes, or 87.5% of the voters who cast ballots bothered to vote in this contest.

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